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Forecasting for Policy Making in the Post-Cold War World by Stanley Feder

Political science has given policy makers many useful methods and models for understanding continuities in the world. The utility of many models that were specified with statistical analysis is likely to be undermined as relations among variables change. Today, globalization, the rapid diffusion of technology, the internet, nongovernment organizations, environmental stresses, and population growth and migration present policy makers with unfamiliar challenges. To keep from being surprised, policy makers need methods that indicate possible outcomes but do not specify probabilities, which can be misleading. Instead, policy makers should have analytic methods that warn of discontinuities and illuminate the forces and processes shaping events. Methods based on or compatible with complexity theory seem promising. I describe two methods that can meet the needs of policy makers: Bueno de Mesquita’s political expected utility models and multiple scenario analysis. But methods or theories alone will not keep policy makers from being surprised by future developments. It will also be crucial to ask the right questions.

Download paper here

At the Frontier of Political Economy

Reform programs sometimes falter because they are politically infeasible. Policy change inevitably creates winners and losers, so those with vested interests strike bargains to determine how far and how quickly reform should advance. Understanding these micro political dynamics of reform can mean the difference between a successful intervention that gains political traction and a well-intentioned gambit that falls short of achieving its developmental objectives. Donors like the World Bank have been searching for ways to take these political factors more fully into account as they design programs to support country reforms. This initiative sought to introduce a rigorous and operationally usable political analysis tool that could be systematically integrated into the World Bank’s country programming cycle. The East Asia and Pacific region carried out a multi-country pilot of the Agent-Based Stakeholder Model. This innovative analytical approach entails a quantitative simulation of the complex bargaining dynamics surrounding reform. The model anticipates stakeholder coalition formation and gauges the political feasibility of alternative proposed interventions. This paper provides a review of the Agent-Based Stakeholder Model pilot experience, exploring what sets this model apart from more traditional approaches, how it works, and how it fits into the Bank’s operational cycle at various stages. An overview of the Mongolia, Philippines, and Timor-Leste country cases is followed by an examination of policy-related insights and lessons learned. Finally, the paper builds on this East Asian pilot experience, offering ideas on a potential way forward for organizations like the World Bank to deepen and extend their political analysis capabilities. The paper argues that the Agent-Based Stakeholder Model, utilized thoughtfully, offers a powerful addition to the practical political economy toolkit.

SIENA by Tom Snijders

SIENA is a program for the statistical analysis of network data, with the focus on social networks.
Networks here are understood as entire (complete) networks, not as personal (egocentered) networks: it is assumed that a set of nodes (social actors) is given, and all ties (links) between these nodes are known – except perhaps for a moderate amount of missing data.
SIENA is designed for analyzing various types of data as dependent variables:

Longitudinal network data:
This refers to repeated measures of networks on a given node set (although it is allowed that there are some changes in the node set). Models can be specified with actor-oriented as well as tie-oriented dynamics.

Longitudinal data of networks and behavior:

This is like longitudinal network data, but in addition there are one or more changing nodal variables that are also treated as dependent variables, and referred to as behavior. The network will influence the dynamics of the behavior, and the behavior will influence the dynamics of the network. In other words, this is about the co-evolution of networks and behavior.

Cross-sectional network data.

‘Cross-sectional’ means that only one observation is available. This method uses exponential random graph models (‘ERGMs’), also called p* models.
The ERG model is implemented in SIENA version 3, but not any more in version 4 (RSiena).

The name SIENA stands for Simulation Investigation for Empirical Network Analysis.

The main approach used by SIENA for modeling dynamics of network (or of networks and behavior) is an actor-oriented model, in which it is assumed that the social actors who are represented by the nodes in the network play a crucial role in changing their ties to other actors; in the case of associated behavior dynamics, also in changing their behavior. All of these models are Markov chain models; such models are more applicable to relations and behavioral variables that can be regarded as states than to relations or behavior that are more adequately regarded as non-enduring events.

The statistical analysis in SIENA is done on the basis of computer simulation of the network. This can be time consuming. In view of the detailed approach to network dynamics and the required computing resources, the method is applicable in principle to networks on approximately 10 to 1,000 nodes.

A scientific summary is given below. The methods implemented in SIENA are described in the papers given in the webpage with literature. Some further articles with applications are given in the webpage with further applications. The program is obtained as a package within Rand the extensive manual is downloadable here.

There exists a User Group for Siena and StOCNET to exchange information and seek technical advice on using the Siena and StOCNET software to analyze network data.
The address is http://groups.yahoo.com/groups/stocnet/.

SIENA version 4 is also called RSiena, a contributed package for the R statistical system, which can be downloaded from http://cran.r-project.org.
The incorporation of RSiena in R makes available all other possibilities offered by R; in particular, to execute R in a Mac or Unix/Linux environment. Further information on RSiena is on the RSiena page.

The transition from the Windows-based SIENA 3 to the R-based, multi-platform SIENA 4, also called RSiena, is complete since Summer 2011, in the sense that practically all longitudinal functionalities of SIENA 3 have been implemented for SIENA 4; since then, many new functionalities have been added, and this is still going on.

The SIENA 3 program also contains methods for analyzing Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs). For the latter methods, users now are referred to the standalone program pnet or the R package statnet, although the old SIENA version 3 still is available for those who wish to use it.
Further work on the StOCNET interface is discontinued.

Known bugs and new papers are given at the news webpage.

The SIENA program is part of an ongoing research effort. The research team is composed of Tom Snijders, Christian Steglich, Johan Koskinen, Josh Lospinoso, Charlotte Greenan, Nynke Niezink, and Christoph Stadtfeld, with earlier contributions from Ruth Ripley, Krists Boitmanis, Paulina Preciado, Michael Schweinberger, Mark Huisman, and Marijtje van Duijn. Current research projects are given at theresearch projects webpage. Courses and a user group are mentioned at the activities webpage.

SIENA version 3 was written in Delphi, for use under Windows. For those who still wish to use Siena 3 it is strongly advised to use the most recent version. This can be downloaded from the downloads page.

The SIENA 3 program can be executed in two ways. Many people find it convenient to execute it from the StOCNET environment. It is also possible to execute SIENA 3 as a stand alone program. The StOCNET project was an activity of Christian Steglich, Tom Snijders, andSciencePlus (Minne Oostra), with important earlier contributions from Evelien Zeggelink, Peter Boer, Bert Straatman, Mark Huisman, and others.

Preference, Structure and Influence: The Engineering of Consent by Witold Henisz

I present a decision process framework that informs the design and implementation of stakeholder influence strategy. This process combines insights from agent-based dynamic utility and dynamic network processes. Stakeholders strategically seek an outcome as close as possible to their preferred point but also wish to be on the winning side and not to pursue positions divergent from stakeholders with whom they have strong affective ties. Simulation analysis highlights important effects from embedding stakeholders within such an interdependent policymaking network. The resulting decision process framework can be used by firms to assess the likely dynamics within such a stakeholder network as well as to compare alternative treatments to that network for their efficacy in securing a favorable policy outcome, collective decision, or shift in group opinion.

Access paper here

Managing Sensitive Projects: A Layered Approach

Every day, managers must adapt to rapidly changing markets and situations. This book deals with sensitive or difficult projects. They range from redundancy programmes to disposal of radioactive waste, from the launch of a new product to the introduction of a new computer system. The method – the strategy of the lateral project – is radically different from those used in projects which are normally associated with traditional project management. It is based upon the lateral thinking concepts of Edward de Bono and is derived from 20 years experience of working with brave managers on projects which many others would have left to their successors. This is a revised translation of the prize-winning and best-selling French management book.

Managing Sensitive Projects'Buy book here

Social License to Operate by Leoora Black

The ‘social licence to operate’ began as a metaphor to bring attention to the need for companies to earn acceptance from their host communities. Today, it is a necessary management framework for complex times.
A social licence strategy is essentially a stakeholder engagement strategy for navigating complex socio-political environments. This book provides the framework, tools and case studies a company needs to create a foundation for truly sustainable community development. This 90-minute guide will enable you to:
  • Define the social licence to operate
  • Make the business case for actively managing your social licence to operate
  • Measure the social licence to operate
  • Develop a step-by-step plan to restore, build, maintain and enhance your company’s social licence, and
  • Report on your social licence.
This book is for managers in any company facing rising social scrutiny due to unwanted social or environmental impacts. You may be working in natural resources, renewable energy, oil and gas, forestry, construction, manufacturing, retail, food processing, pharmaceuticals or any industry that is facing rising stakeholder expectations and increasing criticism.
ENDORSEMENTS  
“Leeora Black provides her readers with a hands-on description on what the social licence to operate is, why it is important to have and how managers can measure and manage it. Her book combines the best of both worlds: firstly, academic precision and theoretical knowledge and secondly, an in-depth understanding of dynamics in social networks which Leeora Black gained in her work as a consultant. Managers and students will find this book useful as it enables better understanding of how businesses with a strong societal impact, for example mining companies, can interact with stakeholders in a meaningful manner that will increase the value the business delivers to the community it is operating in”.
Dr. Julia Roloff, ESC Rennes School of Business
ABOUT THE AUTHOR  
Dr Leeora Black is Managing Director of the Australian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility, a specialist management consulting and training firm based in Melbourne, Australia. After a career in corporate communications and consulting, she completed a doctorate in corporate social responsibility at Monash University.
She is a globally recognised authority on social responsibility, stakeholder engagement and the social licence to operate, advising global companies, government-owned corporations and civic sector organisations on how to develop collaborative relationships that contribute to sustainable community development.

Black_LR Buy book here

Selectors & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Selectors, LLC (“SELECTORS”) uses applied game theory tools that have proven their ability to assist decision-makers:

  • Predict the outcome of negotiations.
  • Increase their ability to influence others and so improve the outcome of negotiations and lobbying efforts.
  • This new frontier of scientific development provides users with a competitive advantage.

SELECTORS uses game theory on behalf of its clients to resolve specific business or political problems.

  • Improve outcomes by anticipating reactions of the other parties in negotiations and helps identify winning strategies.
  • “Forewarned” is “forearmed”.   Game theory can identify when a specific participant or coalition of interests will emerge as a roadblock to reaching agreement on an issue.  Game theory can indicate preventative measures.
  • When negotiations or lobbying are not progressing game theory can often identify ways to get the process back on track.

AREAS OF APPLICATION
The methodology SELECTORS uses applies to the wide range of issues where people endeavor to persuade or coerce others towards their favored outcome.  Some typical areas of application are:

PREDICTING POLITICAL OUTCOMES
CORPORATE ADVISORY, M&A
LITIGATION SETTLEMENTS
LEGISLATION AND REGULATORY LOBBYING
NEGOTIATION WITH OVERSEAS GOVERNMENTS

It does not apply to predicting markets where outcomes are driven by supply and demand.  The methodology is rigorous and external audits find it accurate 90 % of the time.

PRIMA LLC

PRIMA helps executives and public officials manage high-impact risks and opportunities in socio-political systems in order to identify and influence stakeholder coalitions to influence public policy and corporate reputation.

 

Mission Statement

PRIMA identifies and quantifies high-impact risks and high-yield opportunities in complex sociopolitical and infrastructure systems. We provide our clients with actionable insights by analyzing vast quantities of data to identify the stakeholder positions with the greatest potential impact on financial performance or mission attainment.

Markets We Serve

PRIMA’s clients share a common concern: the profound impact that critical stakeholder coalitions or complex system interactions may have on financial performance or mission attainment. Whether the system in question is…

  1. Bullet a political system in which policymakers with different powers seek to accommodate organized interest groups with different priorities, or
  2. Bullet a social system in which organized interest groups attempt to shape the perceptions of ordinary consumers and voters

PRIMA assists private executives and public officials by identifying the stakeholder coalitions or infrastructure system architectures toward which limited risk mitigation resources can be most effectively directed.

For more information, see presentation here

NB: Witold J. Henisz is a principal in PRIMA LLC

Stakeholdermap.com

Stakeholders not happy? Can’t get people to work together? Use four simple steps and our proven templates to map your stakeholders. Learn how to analyse stakeholders by interest and influence to identify key players, potential saboteurs, advocates and avoid time wasters.

Using the ebook and templates available on this site you can develop detailed plans to manage the most important people on your project – the stakeholders.
If you google ‘reasons projects fail’ you will find many different opinions on project failure, but all will contain something about stakeholders, communication, people or teams. 
If you are involved in managing or leading a project it is your responsibility to ensure the project is delivered successfully. It is up to you to deliver the project on time, to budget and to quality. Stakeholder mapping and stakeholder engagement is crucial to achieving these goals. If you manage your stakeholders well they will actively support you. If you ignore your stakeholders they will sabotage your project. 
Need convincing about the importance of Stakeholder Mapping? This case study reveals the perils of mis-managing your stakeholders. Importance of Stakeholder Management – UK Passport Office

Four steps to successful stakeholder mappingProject management methodologies and organisations approach stakeholder mapping in different ways, but there are fundamental principles and processes that can be drawn out. I have distilled these principles into a proven 4 step process that can dramatically improve your chances of success.

 Use these steps along with the stakeholder maps and templates to manage your stakeholders effectively and turn them into project champions!